ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090153 
SPC MCD 090153 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-090230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN SC / SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 090153Z - 090230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH PRIMARILY STRONG THUNDERSTORM
GUSTS WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.  ISOLATED
GUSTS RANGING FROM 45-60 MPH ARE EXPECTED BUT THIS THREAT WILL
PROBABLY BECOME INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED BY THE LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS 3 DISTINCT LINE SEGMENTS AS A PART
OF A LARGER LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS.  INSTRUMENT-MEASURED GUSTS AT KGMU AND KAND IN UPSTATE SC
MEASURED GUSTS OF 36-KT AND 37-KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND KAVL MEASURED
A 38-KT GUST AROUND 0030Z.  AS GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
OCCURS...THE ABILITY FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED STRONG GUSTS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH.  NONETHELESS...A VERY MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN /UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS/ YIELDED 3400 J/KG MLCAPE ON
THE 00Z CHS RAOB.  IT IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS ENCOUNTER THE
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THAT
STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN.  WATER-LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER MAY ACT TO LOCALLY
ENHANCE WET MICROBURSTS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS RANGING GENERALLY IN THE
40-55 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED BUT LOCALLY AROUND 60 MPH MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.  AS A RESULT...STORMS MAY BE
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AT LEAST ON A LOCALIZED BASIS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH/HART.. 07/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34448164 34778036 34767850 34487756 33857828 33487949
            33868243 34448164 

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