ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082336 
SPC MCD 082336 
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-090000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA / SERN TN / UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 082336Z - 090000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS CAPABLE OF WIND
DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP INTO NRN GA AND UPSTATE SC.  A WATCH
EXTENSION-IN-AREA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED UPSTATE SC AND FAR NERN GA
IF A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ISSUED IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SMOKY MTNS MOVING SEWD INTO FAR WRN NC. 
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY THE AIRMASS IS CONSIDERED MODERATELY
BUOYANT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH FLOW FIELDS WEAKEN
WITH SWRN EXTENT OVER NRN GA...KGSP VAD DATA SHOWS 20-40 KT FLOW IN
THE 2-8 KM LAYER ATOP STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES /7-8 DEG C PER KM/. 
IN SUMMARY...IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY A RISK FOR STRONG/LOW-END
SEVERE GUSTS /50-60 MPH/ WILL MOVE INTO NERN GA AND UPSTATE SC.

..SMITH/HART.. 07/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   34018316 34518432 35038450 35068374 35128186 34198181
            34018316 

NNNN