ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081419 
SPC MCD 081419 
MIZ000-081615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 081419Z - 081615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL IL. THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH CONTINUED
HEATING...INCREASING DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AND WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A MIX OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS
AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS DUE IN PART TO WATER LOADING AFFECTS WITH PW VALUES
NOTED IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW
80S...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO INCREASE...FURTHER SUPPORTING
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. STORMS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND EASTWARD SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   45798448 45668404 45358335 44958316 44538318 44178335
            43658391 43378477 43388614 43668655 44218655 44638650
            44948632 45458586 45708563 45808483 45798448 

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