ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 080912 
SPC MCD 080912 
COZ000-081115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 080912Z - 081115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY E OF THE CO FRONT RANGE MAY
BE LOCALLY SVR EARLY THIS MORNING. WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT...MODERATE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES UP
TO THE E SLOPES OF THE CO ROCKIES...WITH THE PUEBLO SFC OBSERVATION
INDICATING MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS -- WHICH IS QUITE MOIST FOR THIS
ELEVATION. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY HAVING MODESTLY COOLED INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...NOCTURNAL MLCINH HAS BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE. AND...WITH
WATER-VAPOR LOOPS IMPLYING THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX PRIMARY SPREADING ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER
N...CONVECTIVE CORES HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING IN EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES JUST E OF THE FRONT RANGE.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY FORM IN THE LOW-INHIBITION ENVIRONMENT AS
SUBTLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES. WITH THE 00Z RAOB AT DNR
INDICATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SURMOUNT THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...INTENSE
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICALLY VEERING
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL...COMBINED WITH AROUND 40 KT OF
0-6-KM SHEAR...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CORES
WITH ISOLATED SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WEAKNESS IN THE 2-3-KM-AGL FLOW WILL TEND TO FOSTER UPDRAFT
SEEDING AND LIMIT OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES TO BE
SUSTAINED. IF AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS WERE TO FOSTER LOCALIZED
UPSCALE GROWTH...THE RISK FOR LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE.

..COHEN/GUYER.. 07/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38330457 38740459 38930405 38570300 37890272 37640316
            37660386 37950447 38330457 

NNNN