ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 072159 
SPC MCD 072159 
OKZ000-TXZ000-080030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLES AND S PLAINS INTO FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 072159Z - 080030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY HOT AIR MASS EXISTS WITHIN A BROAD SFC
TROUGH FROM THE PANHANDLES SWWD ACROSS WRN TX WITH TEMPERATURES IN
EXCESS OF 105 F AND A DEEPLY-MIXED BL. A LARGE HIGH-BASED CU FIELD
WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS WELL WITH ONLY WEAK RADAR
ECHOES. HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE EXISTS FROM WRN OK INTO
NWRN TX WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO BECOME
UNCAPPED...AND TCU ARE ALREADY NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY SW OF CDS AS OF
22Z. WITH TIME...A SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF SCATTERED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM...AND A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33070228 33990138 34590113 35350093 35880036 36179938
            35909902 35039928 34369947 33639968 33140000 32690094
            32650192 32700216 33070228 

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