MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0810 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MO/FAR SOUTHEAST
   IA/WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IL/FAR WESTERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...

   VALID 071310Z - 071445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PERSISTS THIS
   MORNING INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MO...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
   WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IL AS A LARGE BOWING LINE OF STORMS
   ADVANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40-45 KT.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS
   A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER
   THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 346.  

   THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST
   MO AND FAR SOUTHEAST IA WILL POSE SOME SEVERE RISK AS IT MOVES INTO
   ADJACENT WEST-CENTRAL IL THROUGH 14Z. SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
   THEN TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL IL.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TO
   THE SOUTHEAST AT 40-45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH A 48-KT GUST
   OBSERVED AT COU AT 1202Z.  AT THIS FORWARD SPEED...THE LINE OF
   STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE STL METRO AREA BY 14Z AND EXTEND ALONG A
   LINE THROUGH WASHINGTON TO TEXAS AND WRIGHT COUNTIES MO.  THE
   OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM
   THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS...FAVORING THE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST STORM
   MOTION...WITH THE BOW EXITING WW 346 INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR
   SOUTHERN IL BY 15Z.  DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING OF VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THIS LATTER AREA WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION SUCH THAT A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
   LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KY/TN.

   FARTHER NORTH...THE PORTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
   INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL WAS TRACKING TO THE EAST AT 30-35 KT.  AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE SEVERE
   RISK SHOULD TEMPORALLY DIMINISH AS THIS LINE OF STORMS EXITS THE
   NORTHEAST PART OF WW 346 INTO CENTRAL IL.  THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING
   INDICATED A STOUT CAP.  THE CURRENT EASTWARD SPEED OF THE STORMS
   TOWARD CENTRAL IL WILL LIKELY OUTRUN THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS TO
   DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT FROM MID-LATE MORNING.

   ..PETERS.. 07/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37848844 37178900 36988903 36638951 36319019 36509126
               36719222 37099319 37459377 37809350 38179289 38549204
               39019164 39729163 40369167 40809168 41119135 41059048
               41118995 40138951 39168919 38448884 37848844