ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070142 
SPC MCD 070142 
OKZ000-TXZ000-070245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0842 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 070142Z - 070245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SWRN OK AND NW TX THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SERN PANHANDLE OF TX WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO
SWRN OK AND NW TX. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IS MARGINAL /10-20 KT PER AMA
AND OUN 00Z SOUNDINGS/...BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS OR SO...BEFORE AN
ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THIS THREAT.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34849849 33979886 33679921 33720011 33850074 34120080
            34640064 35100021 35179990 35269914 35219875 34849849 

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