ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061951 
SPC MCD 061951 
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-062115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...WRN SD...NWRN NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 061951Z - 062115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED BENEATH
THICKER CIRRUS WITHIN SW-NE ORIENTED WARM CONVEYOR OVER NERN WY INTO
THE NRN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS OF SD.  THE NON-TERRAIN-INDUCED
CONVECTION OVER WY IS LIKELY DRIVEN BY LARGE-SCALE PROCESSES AHEAD
OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST SATELLITE/SFC DATA SUGGEST MORE
MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER IS STREAMING NWWD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOW NEAR 60F.  WHILE 18Z
SOUNDING AT RAP SUGGESTS SFC-BASED PARCELS REMAIN CAPPED ALONG THE
I-90 CORRIDOR...INTENSE HEATING OVER SERN WY APPEARS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER DAWES COUNTY NEBRASKA. 
CONTINUED DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING OF THIS AGITATED CU FIELD SHOULD
LEAD TO STRONG SUPERCELLS WITHIN A FEW HOURS.  WHILE HAIL WILL BE
COMMON WITH THESE STORMS...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS STORM
INFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 07/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   44760397 44910210 44180113 42920104 42740248 43500316
            44120427 44760397 

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