ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061004 
SPC MCD 061004 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-061200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL/EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA/EXTREME NORTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL MO...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331...333...

VALID 061004Z - 061200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
331...333...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT...PRIMARILY OCCURRING AS
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA.  ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS OF THESE THREE STATES AND PERHAPS IN FAR NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF MO /SOUTH OF WW 333/...THE FURTHER
DECELERATION OF THE LEADING BAND OF STORMS/OUTFLOW PRECLUDES THE
NEED FOR A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...AT 0945Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE
BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA TO FAR SOUTHEAST IA
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MCS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY REGION.  A 25-30 KT
LLJ HAS VEERED TO WESTERLY FROM EASTERN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THIS JET BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWARD-MOVING BAND OF STORMS.  THIS FACTOR AND TRENDS IN RECENT
RADAR TIME-LAPSE OF THE EXTENSIVE BAND OF STORMS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME UNDERCUT AS THE ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.  THIS PROCESS APPEARS
TO BE SIMILAR TO AN ANAFRONT...WHILE RESIDUAL MUCAPE OF 1500-3000
J/KG SHOULD ALLOW FOR EPISODIC STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..PETERS.. 07/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   41169206 41269051 41368998 41138936 41108839 41378753
            41758679 41728617 41428596 40848604 39988630 39478687
            38988785 38969008 39569092 39919149 40589219 41169206 

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