ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060138 
SPC MCD 060138 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SW WI...NE IA...NW IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 060138Z - 060245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 03Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SW WI...NE IA...AND NW IL AS THE ONGOING MCS
CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...STORM MOTION OF THE ONGOING MCS IS ESTIMATED AT 300/38
KT...TAKING IT TO THE EDGE OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 326
AROUND 0230-0300Z. REGIONAL VADS SHOW INCREASING SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM FAR SE MN SEWD INTO NW
IL. ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDE BY THIS INCREASING WAA AS WELL AS THE
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE ONGOING MCS AND THE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT
TRACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SW WI...NE IA...AND NW IL. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH HAIL AS THE SECONDARY
THREAT. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE BOUNDARY AND MOIST NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.

..MOSIER/GUYER.. 07/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43409214 44279085 44248965 43898917 43058896 42188928
            41519072 41969195 42609242 43409214 

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