ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 060038 SPC MCD 060038 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-060215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA...W-CNTRL WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 323... VALID 060038Z - 060215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 323 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 323 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 324 AND 326. MCS HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS SRN MN AND THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTION OF THE LEAD SUPERCELL...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ST. CROIX AND PIERCE COUNTIES IN FAR W-CNTRL WI...HAS SHOWN CYCLIC TIGHTENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH PERSISTENCE AREAS OF STRONG REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT. SOME CLEARING IS ALSO NOTED ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ACROSS THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL METRO...WHICH IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME TYPE OF INCREASING REAR-INFLOW/WAKE LOW. NELY SURFACE WINDS SUGGEST THE LOW IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY THE BOOK-END VORTEX DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING FROM CARVER AND SCOTT COUNTIES WWD TO REDWOOD AND BROWN COUNTIES. RADAR SIGNATURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE HAS RECENTLY SHOWN INCREASED FORWARD PROPAGATION. THIS REFLECTIVITY SURGE COUPLE WITH THE STRONG INDICATIONS OF A BOOK-END VORTEX SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS WELL-ORGANIZED. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ABOVE 7.5 DEG C PER KM BASED ON RECENT MESOANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RAOBS/ ARE SUPPORTING STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE ABOVE 3000 J PER KG/. BETTER SHEAR IS DISPLACED A BIT N OF THIS REGION BUT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY...A STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MCS MAINTENANCE. ..MOSIER.. 07/06/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 44459614 45139369 45739222 45719099 44559090 43519263 43009562 44459614 NNNN