ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051019 
SPC MCD 051019 
TXZ000-OKZ000-051245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051019Z - 051245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX
COULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT...WITH HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIMITED SEVERE RISK...A SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...ANALYSIS OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST
TX SHOWED A 35-40-KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH TX /GENERALLY BETWEEN THE DFW METROPLEX AND
CHILDRESS/.  MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS HAD INCREASED IN
AREAL COVERAGE SINCE 09Z...ALONG A LINE FROM PALO PINTO COUNTY TX
NORTHWEST TO JACKSON COUNTY OK.  THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
DEVELOPING WITHIN ISENTROPIC FLOW REGIME ATOP A NORTHWEST-EXTENDING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH
NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND REACHING THEIR LFC WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF
AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES.  MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAD
INCREASED SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITHIN A N-S BAND FROM
ALONG THE WESTERN OK/TX BORDER TO HARDEMAN TO KNOW COUNTIES TX. 
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING
OK/TX PANHANDLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LINEAR
FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  STORMS HAVE BEEN THE
STRONGEST...RECENTLY...AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE N-S BAND AND THE
NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN STORMS IN THE
JACKSON COUNTY OK...AND HARDEMAN/WILBARGER COUNTIES TX REGION.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A 35-40-KT LLJ...WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK BULK
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 07/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33649999 34509987 35509998 35519923 35129826 34209758
            33309720 32539728 32149728 31949753 32129810 32459854
            32939914 33379980 33649999 

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