ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 050414 SPC MCD 050414 OKZ000-TXZ000-050615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 050414Z - 050615Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS AND PERHAPS INTO WRN OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A COMPACT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC PERTURBATION AND PRECEDING ZONE OF MOISTENING/ASCENT EMERGING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE VICINITY. THIS ASCENT IS OVERTAKING THE WRN FRINGES OF RICHER DEEP MOISTURE -- PW ON THE ORDER OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES EWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETREATED WWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ANALYZED AS FAR W AS THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS. MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- AROUND 7.5 C/KM IN THE H7-H5 LAYER BASED ON THE 00Z AMA RAOB -- COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIKELY SUPPORTING MUCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED INTENSE UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW RELATED TO THE TIGHTENED HEIGHT GRADIENT ATTENDANT TO THE PERTURBATION IS SUPPORTING AROUND 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...PERHAPS YIELDING A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GROWING NOCTURNAL MLCINH...COMBINED WITH GENERALLY MODEST LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION...SUGGEST ANY SVR RISK SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..COHEN/GUYER.. 07/05/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34030193 35130258 36090206 36220051 35839991 34699969 34010038 34030193 NNNN