ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 042221 SPC MCD 042221 TXZ000-050045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX AND VICINITY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 042221Z - 050045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX AND VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL BE UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- EXCEPT IN THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS -- HAS FOSTERED VERY STRONG DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IMPLY AN ASSORTMENT OF DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONFLUENCE AXES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A FRONTOLYTIC SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY INVOF THE RED RIVER...SERVING AS FOCI FOR INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MLCINH HAS MOSTLY ERODED. TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...THE COMBINATION OF THE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY OCCUR WITH LOCALLY SVR WIND/HAIL. LARGE DCAPE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH WERE TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THE ATTENDANT SVR RISK MAY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF A MORE ORGANIZED...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WERE TO BECOME EVIDENT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SVR WINDS...WW PROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES WITH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT THE PRESENT TIME...THOUGH THE AREA FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TO N-CNTRL TX W OF THE DFW METROPLEX COULD BE A FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE-CLUSTER DEVELOPMENT. ..COHEN/GUYER.. 07/04/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31630012 32530115 33540135 34360111 34399991 33989837 33199744 32469741 31609833 31630012 NNNN