ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 041834 SPC MCD 041834 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN ND...FAR NERN SD...AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 041834Z - 042100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISKS...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL ND THROUGH 21Z AS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE TROUGH LIFTS SFC-BASED PARCELS PAST THEIR LFC. MOST SHORT-TERM CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN ND AND FAR NERN SD REMAIN CLOUD FREE...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION. LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SHOULD FAVOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL STORM SPLITS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL/ERN SD CASTS DOUBT ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION/COVERAGE WITH SWD EXTENT...AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS NWRN MN MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WITH EWD EXTENT. ..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 07/04/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45969979 47270063 49060078 49069774 49079534 49429531 49439476 48749447 47349450 45969531 45739683 45789918 45969979 NNNN