ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041636 
SPC MCD 041636 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-041730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...KY AND NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 041636Z - 041730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF KY
INTO NRN TN.  STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARMING RAPIDLY SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FIELD ACROSS KY INTO NRN TN.  AS A RESULT...SFC-3KM LAPSE
RATES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 7 C/KM AS SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 80S.  EARLY-MORNING CONVECTION HAS ESTABLISHED AN
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM NRN KY...SWWD TO NEAR THE BOOTHEEL OF MO. 
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A FEW ESTABLISHED MCVS ARE NOTED.  THE
STRONGEST IS NEAR CGI AND TSTMS ARE INCREASING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE.  LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED NE-SW CORRIDOR AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 07/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37008892 37468610 38308425 37698332 36448539 36278839
            37008892 

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