ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032223 
SPC MCD 032223 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-040000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL...SWRN IND...WRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 317...318...

VALID 032223Z - 040000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 317...318...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...INCREASED DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE
LINES CONTINUE EWD ACROSS TOR WATCH 317. BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MESOVORTICIES THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF EACH OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES.

DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CONTINUED
LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE TWO TSTM CLUSTERS OVER THE REGION...ONE
ACROSS N-CNTRL KY/FAR SRN IND AND THE OTHER FARTHER W ACROSS SRN IL
AND FAR WRN KY. AREA VADS SHOW ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW...GENERALLY
AROUND 50 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH ELY SURFACE
WINDS IS SUPPORTING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT WITH
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH THE
GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR THE ONGOING LINEAR SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE EWD
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH EACH OF THE
LINES IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ELY SURFACE WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND VORTICITY...SUGGESTING SOME
LOCALIZED MESOVORTICIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE. MESOVORTICIES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OVERTAKE ANY LEADING TSTMS.

..MOSIER.. 07/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...
MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   38848899 39168813 39248535 38658423 37878369 36588435
            36428471 36348628 36398864 36438960 36798998 37678958
            38848899 

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