ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032038 
SPC MCD 032038 
SDZ000-NDZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 032038Z - 032245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY POSE A
MARGINAL STRONG/GUSTY WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...20Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ND ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC LEE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS OF WRN SD. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7.5 DEG C/KM PER 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BISMARCK ND AND RAPID CITY SD AND 19Z RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 500-2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE MCD AREA ARE REASONABLE. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO ENCOURAGE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS
AROUND 35-40 KT AND SIMILAR EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING
STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   49030098 47520039 45850024 43850180 43250361 43580398
            45910399 47910400 49010397 49030098 

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