ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 031943 
SPC MCD 031943 
OKZ000-032145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 031943Z - 032145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
EAST OF A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK AND DEVELOP INTO
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ALONG
WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...INITIAL CB DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER PAYNE AND
LOGAN COUNTIES NEAR A 1009 MB SURFACE CYCLONE. PERSISTENT
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS CYCLONE SHOULD FOSTER ADDITIONAL STORMS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE IS STRONGLY
UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 17Z LAMONT RAOB AMID A PLUME OF MIDDLE 70S
SURFACE DEW POINTS. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST...THE
LARGE MLCAPE AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY FOSTER A
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL BY EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARD...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36249746 36489713 36649586 36539517 36349476 36049467
            35689466 35059492 34379572 34289649 34499748 34779785
            35379762 36249746 

NNNN