ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021819 
SPC MCD 021819 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-022015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 021819Z - 022015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY
DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE COMMENCED ALONG A REMNANT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHWEST MO WITH
ADDITIONAL AGITATED CU WITHIN A WEAKLY CONFLUENT REGIME TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN FAR EASTERN OK. SPRINGFIELD VWP DATA SAMPLED MODERATE
SPEED SHEAR AMID PREDOMINANT DEEP-LAYER WESTERLIES. THIS TYPE OF
PROFILE SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS PROGRESSING INTO THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN SOUTHERN MO NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. WITH A NORTH/SOUTH
GRADIENT TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW...SHOULD STORMS FORM FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAKLY ORGANIZED. PRIMARY
HAZARDS IN THIS SCENARIO SHOULD BE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37069325 37249277 37289237 37249175 37059153 36709152
            36299195 36199285 35909361 35469427 35479474 35949456
            36839387 37069325 

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