MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...RATON MESA TO SOUTHWEST KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021755Z - 022000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION
   BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK.
   COMPARATIVELY GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST EAST IN
   SOUTHWEST KS TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED OVER THE RATON
   MESA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM BORDER...WITH CU INCREASING
   DOWNSTREAM NEAR A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE
   UNCAPPED/MODESTLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE
   CYCLONE SHOULD YIELD INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO LATE
   AFTERNOON. A BELT OF CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM
   OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
   PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
   ATTENDANT SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK. OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS RISK
   SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS EARLY EVENING AS STORMS BEGIN TO
   CONGLOMERATE...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERN EXTENT IN SOUTHWEST KS.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38250106 38449998 38039958 37529973 36920013 36410144
               36240333 36460447 37010485 37340481 37760446 38130352
               38010262 38250106