ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020148 
SPC MCD 020148 
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-020345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 020148Z - 020345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE WIND GUST AND BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEVELOPING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS ISOLATED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REQUIRE A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
BACA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AND EXTENDING INTO CIMARRON
COUNTY OKLAHOMA IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN
MID-LEVEL FLOW PER REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS. LINEAR
ORGANIZATION...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 6-6.5 C/KM AND
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF THE SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS UNDER A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB FLOW HAS
INCREASED THE EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY TO 300-400 M2/S2
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO OVER 20
KT. THIS ENHANCEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVERLAPS WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNDER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE DISCRETE STORM MODES HAVE NOT
MATERIALIZED...A POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES ALONG THE QLCS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A
BRIEF WEAK TORNADO AND A SEVERE WIND GUST REMAINS THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL NEAR-SURFACE COOLING DECOUPLES THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RESIDUAL MIXED LAYER ALOFT.

..CONIGLIO/COHEN/GUYER.. 07/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36570288 36960282 37120288 37740228 38070227 38450210
            38690146 38640086 38500031 38140012 37330027 36990055
            36630122 36600135 36530220 36560251 36570288 

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