ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 020059 SPC MCD 020059 MEZ000-NHZ000-020300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO WRN MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315... VALID 020059Z - 020300Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE WITH CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE BORDER INTO WESTERN MAINE THROUGH 02-03Z. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT ANOTHER WATCH IS NEEDED...HOWEVER. DISCUSSION...MODEST STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...NEAR/NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING ACROSS MUCH SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS BEEN OFFSET BY CONSIDERABLE COOLING OF TEMPERATURES...BUT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS STILL SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. THIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF A SMALL EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR THE INTERSTATE 93 CORRIDOR NORTH OF CONCORD. IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...MOMENTUM/SHEAR ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW /TO AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT/ PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH LONGER...BUT PERHAPS AT LEAST ACROSS THE STATE BORDER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE THROUGH 02-03Z. THIS COULD IMPACT AUBURN/LEWISTON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PORTLAND AREA. ..KERR.. 07/02/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX... LAT...LON 44667079 44967056 44826952 43987003 43597057 43617118 44307094 44667079 NNNN