MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311...

   VALID 300231Z - 300400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO
   THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEBRASKA WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS DESPITE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.

   DISCUSSION...AN MCS MOVING THROUGH WW311 CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS DESPITE THE TREND TO A SLIGHTLY MORE UPSHEAR TILT AS
   IDENTIFIED BY AN INCREASING DISTANCE BETWEEN THE GUST FRONT AND THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE. SPC MESOANALYSIS FIELDS APPEARED TO BE INGESTING A
   SERIES OF DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS THAT WERE TOO LOW PRIOR TO 0130Z AND
   SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING TOO LITTLE CAPE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. PER
   LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 00Z LBF SOUNDING...MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
   LIKELY RESIDES AHEAD OF THE MCS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WHEN COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   40-55 KT ORIENTED ORTHOGONALLY TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COLD
   POOL...SHOULD ALLOW THE MCS TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

   AFTER THIS TIME...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND
   THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD FACILITATE A
   MORE SUSTAINED WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
   SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGER MUCAPE
   OF 2000-2500 J/KG RESIDING OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE LATEST
   ESRL HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY
   ACTIVE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

   ..CONIGLIO/COHEN/GUYER.. 06/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42600151 42610078 42720022 42909984 42889938 42639909
               42129897 41769885 41509924 41349990 41440067 41710134
               42080168 42600151