MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...NE WY...SW SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291847Z - 292015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW
   NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE NOTED
   ACROSS PARTS OF SE MT ALONG AN E-W BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF JDN
   TO MLS TO BHK. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KT
   SHOULD ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND A
   RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
   50S...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES-DEWPOINT SPREADS NEAR 30 DEGREES F.
   GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MODEST
   INSTABILITY...SEVERE CONVECTION MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED BUT
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   46160977 46650958 46450801 45900567 45430418 44900315
               44340228 43470193 42900226 42710316 42750403 43090511
               43750646 44450751 45550909 46160977