ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 290313 
SPC MCD 290313 
KSZ000-COZ000-290415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 290313Z - 290415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE A SQUALL LINE WITH
POTENTIAL SEVERE GUSTS WILL MOVE INTO SERN CO DURING THE 04-08Z
PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE OVER E-CNTRL CO IS
INTENSIFYING FROM YUMA COUNTY WSWWD TOWARDS THE GREATER COLORADO
SPRINGS AREA.  MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONG
MOIST FLUX INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS AT 03Z RANGING FROM 54 DEG
AT LHX AND 65 DEG F AT LAA.  THEREFORE...DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO COOL DUE TO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER.  STRONG STORM-RELATIVE FLOW /AOA 50 KT/ AND A
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /2000-3000 J PER KG MUCAPE/ WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MATURATION OF THE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS E-CNTRL CO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN THE
MULTITUDE OF SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL
LINE INTO SERN CO...THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE GUSTS /50-65 KT/ IS
PLAUSIBLE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37820383 38820416 39280342 38510210 37050203 37050335
            37820383 

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