ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 290013 
SPC MCD 290013 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-290215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB / ERN CO / NWRN INTO W-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 290013Z - 290215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AROUND 02Z.

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NWRN NEB IS
CURRENTLY GROWING UPSCALE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE INTO A
HIGH-END FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS THIS EVENING.  SELY SURFACE WINDS
VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID LEVELS PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB WILL PROMOTE
THE SEWD MOTION OF THE INTENSIFYING MCS.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER
COOLING WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8
DEG C PER KM PER THE LBF RAOB/ COUPLED WITH AN ADEQUATELY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR
SEVERE GUSTS INTO PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB AND NERN CO TOWARDS 03Z. 
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AUGMENTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ACCELERATION IN MOTION PROJECTS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO EVENTUALLY
REACH I-70 IN NWRN KS AROUND 04Z.  WIND GUSTS 60-75 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38240184 39280297 40330276 41189938 40119860 38859859
            38229997 38240184 

NNNN