ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 282010 
SPC MCD 282010 
OKZ000-KSZ000-282115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW/S-CNTRL KS INTO NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 282010Z - 282115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF INTENSE CELLS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SW/S-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A S/SWLY SURGING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
WEAK/VERY SUBTLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW MOVING
ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S HAS RESULTED IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS. STORMS
ARE GENERALLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED BEING ON THE FRINGES OF MORE
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND WITH DCAPE GREATER THAN 1500
J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN INTENSE
UPDRAFTS...SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THESE CELLS MAY PERSIST AND IF ANY ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR SHOULD
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCUR. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS ARE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   38119943 38109811 37959797 37529782 36899785 36569796
            36379820 36299857 36279915 36329957 36459986 36830009
            37090017 37619991 38009970 38119943 

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