ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280939 
SPC MCD 280939 
KSZ000-281145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 280939Z - 281145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL/FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SSEWD AT NEAR 30 KT ACROSS PARTS OF N
CENTRAL/NERN KS ATTM.  WHILE ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER...AND DESPITE VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM PER MODEL
POINT-FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LATEST TWX /TOPEKA KS/
WSR-88D VWP...WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST
HALF HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELL NOW MOVING INTO DICKINSON CO. 
THOUGH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF THE STORMS AND 30 KT NNWLYS NEAR H5 DRIVE
CONTINUED SSELY STORM MOTION...DOWNSTREAM SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED/ISOLATED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILITY
AND LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE FLOW.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 06/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39129770 39269731 39109675 38649633 38069620 37699667
            37929750 38819786 39129770 

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