ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 262246 
SPC MCD 262246 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-270045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/NEB PANHANDLE...NE CO...NW KS...EXTREME SE
WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 262246Z - 270045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING AS TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN INCREASINGLY
AGITATED CU OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOW REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NEB/NEB
PANHANDLE. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT LIKELY FAVORING
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER NE CO AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT /LARGELY
DELINEATED BY THE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA/. 

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J PER KG /BASED ON
LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ AND MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH SELY
SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 06/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39670417 40900501 42670238 42690096 41600000 40119957
            38950093 39670417 

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