ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261805 
SPC MCD 261805 
ILZ000-MOZ000-261930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261805Z - 261930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME AND A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
HANNIBAL MO...NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR CHICAGO. THE AIRMASS IN THE AREA
IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON A WEAK SIDE /20-35
KT/...AS STRONGER FLOW REMAINS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS ALSO
WEAK WITH NEARLY PARALLEL LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FURTHERMORE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST IN THE 6-7 DEG C/KM.
FOR THESE REASONS...STORMS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ONLY LOOSELY
ORGANIZED...TRENDING TOWARDS STORM CLUSTERS OR LINES. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE OVERALL
THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37949377 38389406 38889432 39169427 39449356 39889213
            40289078 40778965 40818919 40538879 39978856 39368859
            38838891 38218989 37909072 37649188 37579268 37659325
            37949377 

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