ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 260257 
SPC MCD 260257 
IAZ000-260530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IOWA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 260257Z - 260530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
IOWA WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE...AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY 
PRODUCE ISOLATED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE-STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /30-35 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE
DISCUSSION AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING DESPITE THE ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL RISK SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 06/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON   43479383 43499261 43069191 42329170 41589207 41039244
            40729348 40729435 40749526 41099569 41769566 42699458
            43349406 43479383 

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