ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 242151 
SPC MCD 242151 
NDZ000-MTZ000-242315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 242151Z - 242315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE INCREASE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL MONTANA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GLASGOW.  THE CENTRAL MONTANA CONVECTION WAS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
RELATIVELY MEAGER MOISTURE VALUES CONTRIBUTING TO 250-500 J/KG
MUCAPE.  THIS CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.

WITH TIME...THE APPROACHING IDAHO DISTURBANCE WILL FOSTER
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT...WHILE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE /AND ATTENDANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY/...ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT
PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA.  VEERING OF FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL
AID IN SOME STORM ROTATION...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  A TORNADO MAY OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER EXPECTED LINEAR
STORM MODE WILL FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT WITH TIME.

..COOK/EDWARDS.. 06/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48980262 48980374 49000504 48960589 48960708 48780827
            48280963 47311046 46451004 45940949 45750868 45730785
            46130600 46740413 47490299 48460232 48710240 48980262 

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