ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241657 
SPC MCD 241657 
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-241800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...SRN MD...DELMARVA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 241657Z - 241800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS TSTM
COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SVR COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO MERIT A WW.

DISCUSSION...DIURNAL HEATING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S...AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...BUT THIS WARM
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J
PER KG. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
REGION...THE MOST PROMINENT BEING THE TROUGH/REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT
IS DRAPED FROM CNTRL WV ESEWD THROUGH CNTRL VA AND THEN ENEWD TO A
LOW OVER THE SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA. HEATING IS OCCURRING ON BOTH
SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY AND TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WEAK ELY/SELY FLOW TO THE N OF THE SURFACE LOW. PRESENCE OF THIS
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS CONTINUED HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL LOW AND RESULTING
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   38547764 39237714 39647628 39477546 38907509 38417500
            37727550 37097581 36917641 37087735 37777777 38547764 

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