ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 240236 
SPC MCD 240236 
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-240400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTHERN KY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND PARTS OF
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290...293...

VALID 240236Z - 240400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
290...293...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW
290...ATTENDANT TO TWO WEST-EAST ORIENTED BANDS OF STORMS MOVING TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE RECENT INCREASE IN STORMS THAT MOVED INTO
NORTHWEST KY SUGGESTS WW 290 COULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND 03Z.

AS STORMS IN SOUTHERN KY AND NORTHEAST TN PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WITHIN PARTS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN
TN COULD BE ADDED TO WW 293.  HOWEVER...DETAILS IN THE DISCUSSION
SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW.

DISCUSSION...AT 0225Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW
GENERALLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED BANDS OF STORMS ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KY...SOUTHWEST VA AND
NORTHEAST TN.  THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE...GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY RESIDING FROM WESTERN KY THROUGH MUCH OF TN.  STORMS IN
SOUTHWEST VA/NORTHEAST TN ARE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 35
KT AND THE STORMS IN SOUTHERN KY MOVING INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TN ARE
TRACKING TO THE SOUTH NEAR 35 KT...WITH THESE SPEEDS SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...THE ONGOING
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT...AS OBSERVED WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTHERN KY TO SOUTHWEST
VA HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE RECENTLY.  THEREFORE...A FEW NEW
COUNTIES COULD BE ADDED TO WW 293...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.

FARTHER NORTH...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL KY ACROSS THE VALID NORTHERN PORTION OF
WW 290...AS MRMS MESH DATA HAS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STORMS WITH
HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.  INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATELY
STRONG AND THIS REGION RESIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 06/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37948737 37958629 38098548 37788496 37068469 36708395
            36588334 36848248 36998192 36558154 36148155 35918172
            35758283 35668423 35718535 35918639 36218672 36948700
            37948737 

NNNN