ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 240035 
SPC MCD 240035 
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-240230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WV...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 291...

VALID 240035Z - 240230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 291
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH STORMS ACROSS THE VALID PORTION OF WW 291 THIS EVENING. 
AND...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LOCAL WFO EXPANSION OF WW 291 IS LIKELY ACROSS ITS SOUTHERN
EXTENT...WHILE COUNTIES IN THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WATCH
COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY AS THE AIR MASS IS CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED.

DISCUSSION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WW 291 WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS AND IN LEE
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS ATTENDANT
FORCING FOR ASCENT...A BAND OF 50+ KT NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB
WINDS...AND RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO NC
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IN VICINITY OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC INTO SOUTHWEST VA WILL POSE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 06/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   37938075 37517890 36907847 36597847 36477785 36527727
            36217678 35787683 35107754 34717824 35067912 35177980
            35368032 36178141 36408156 36598165 37038175 37938075 

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