ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 222243 SPC MCD 222243 WIZ000-MNZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 222243Z - 230045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED...AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A WW IS NOT LIKELY ATTM...BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF MORE THAN ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS CAN EMERGE FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE...HIGHER WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT/ AND ABOUT 55-65 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN RENVILLE AND MEEKER COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY INFLUENCED BY BOTH A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE CELLS MAY BECOME DOMINANT WITH EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS AS THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DOMINANT STORMS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION...ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD TEMPER THIS THREAT. ..COOK/EDWARDS.. 06/22/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 45219213 44699211 44279233 43949287 43799326 43719374 43789425 44009473 44419483 45559467 46329472 46899515 47019484 46899425 46169322 45739237 45219213 NNNN