ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220900 
SPC MCD 220900 
ILZ000-IAZ000-221100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 220900Z - 221100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL IL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A NEW
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS OVER HENDERSON/WARREN
COUNTIES IN WEST-CENTRAL IL AS OF 0855Z HAS A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND RADAR INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF WW
284 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE STORMS MOVE ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND THE 05Z ESRL HRRR ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW INTO CENTRAL IL.

..BUNTING/DIAL.. 06/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   39569034 40539144 41079138 41299105 41209049 41089039
            41148989 40388872 39778869 39468914 39569034 

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