ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220430 
SPC MCD 220430 
SDZ000-NDZ000-220530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND / NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...

VALID 220430Z - 220530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN SEVERAL
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OVER CNTRL AND SRN ND PER MRMS MESH
DATA.  MUCH OF THE ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL SD NWWD INTO WRN ND.
ELY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE ERN HALF OF ND WILL LIKELY ONLY
MARGINALLY MOISTEN WITH TIME OWING TO A REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO.  

NONETHELESS...AN ADEQUATE FEED OF CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PARCELS
FROM THE S/SW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  THE
STRONGER H5 HEIGHT FALLS /60+ M PER 12 HR/ PER EVENING UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WRN AND CNTRL ND LATE THIS
EVENING.  THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/SHEAR WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH.. 06/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45339971 46850204 47740140 47339986 46269801 45419830
            45339971 

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