ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220328 
SPC MCD 220328 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-220530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SERN IA / NERN MO / W-CNTRL AND CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 220328Z - 220530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.  IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEED TO BE ISSUED BETWEEN 04-08Z.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SEVERE HAIL-PRODUCING SUPERCELL
OVER SRN IA ON THE SWRN FLANK OF WEAKER TSTMS.  A FRONTAL ZONE
DRAPED NW TO SE OVER THE REGION IS FOCUSING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE EWD ADVECTION OF STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL GROWTH WITH TIME.  ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE AND SUGGESTED BY HOURLY TIME-LAGGED
HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AS SWLY H85 FLOW STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. 
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING PROCESSES WILL LIFT PARCELS TO THEIR LFC
AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SCTD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOMETIME
BETWEEN 04-08Z.  STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND AMPLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCIPIENT
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A MORE LOCALIZED DAMAGING-WIND
RISK.

..SMITH/HART.. 06/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40038898 39058918 38929032 38909166 39459277 40679319
            42359345 42679298 42599194 41829119 40038898 

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