ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220249 
SPC MCD 220249 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD / NERN NEB / NWRN IA / SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 220249Z - 220315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUST RISK WILL LIKELY SPREAD
DOWNSTREAM FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281.  ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND BECOME STRONG/SEVERE LATER
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS W OF THE
MO RIVER IN CNTRL SD WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED/BUOYANT AIRMASS.  A
FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES.  LARGE HAIL
WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY RISK BUT SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER AND GROW
UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT.

..SMITH/HART.. 06/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   41869669 42949984 44039934 44439816 43589522 42639462
            41999530 41869669 

NNNN