MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0996
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEW YORK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 202250Z - 210015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS
   OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AS THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY ADVANCE EAST OUT OF
   ONTARIO THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED WITHIN AN HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ADVANCING
   EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...AIDED BY
   INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM A STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
   APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WHILE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS DECREASE WITH
   EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK...ADEQUATE HEATING /I.E. SFC
   TEMPS IN THE 80S/ HAS PROMOTED STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS THE REGION. IN COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED FLOW IN THE 1-2 KM
   LAYER /E.G. AROUND 40-45 KTS IN THE KBUF VWP/...THIS THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD MAINTAIN A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS CELLS
   ENTER FAR UPSTATE NEW YORK. ADDITIONALLY...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   CONFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BOW MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF
   STRONG WIND GUSTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. AS SUCH...A
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..PICCA/BROYLES.. 06/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44187622 43667662 42687706 42297725 41957643 42707448
               43667349 44917338 45037408 44897511 44187622