ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192352 
SPC MCD 192352 
NEZ000-COZ000-200145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL NEB...FAR NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 192352Z - 200145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SW
AND CNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1008 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL CO
WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS NE CO AND WCNTRL NEB.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT NORTH PLATTE SHOWS
35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ROTATION AND
HAIL IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25-35
DEGREES F WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS AND MAY AID DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATION AND A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO LIMITED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 06/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40110219 40030105 40159987 40979908 41569894 41859974
            41870120 41380200 40430244 40110219 

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