ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192038 
SPC MCD 192038 
SDZ000-NEZ000-192315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN INTO S-CNTRL SD / N-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 192038Z - 192315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF ERN SD INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. 
SPARSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE A WATCH OVER
S-CNTRL SD AND THE NEB SANDHILLS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU ALONG A
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT FROM NERN SD SWWD INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
NEB SANDHILLS.  CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEG F OVER ERN
SD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLIES THE GREATEST CHANCE/COVERAGE OF ISOLD
STORMS WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN SD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MN
WHEREAS STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SPARSE FARTHER SW ACROSS
S-CNTRL SD/N-CNTRL NEB.  

THE ENVIRONMENT OWING TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND APPRECIABLE
BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
UPDRAFTS THAT BECOME SUSTAINED/MATURE.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..SMITH/GUYER.. 06/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42240119 45459732 44699646 41560042 42240119 

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