ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192024 
SPC MCD 192024 
MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-192230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MINNESOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 192024Z - 192230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE BY 21-22Z...WITH A
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...AT 20Z...STRONG HEATING IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM NERN SD INTO NWRN MN. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE LOW 70S F...THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WITH
MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG NOTED PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. A
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION WAS NOTED ON 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM
ABR/INL/MPX...AND THE CHARACTER OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA
SUGGESTS THAT SOME CAP REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
RELATED TO A VORT MAX MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA SHOULD EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS SOON AS
21-22Z. 

A STRONG MIDLEVEL JET IS PROVIDING AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE 18Z ABR/INL SOUNDINGS ALREADY INDICATING VERY
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL.
RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TORNADO
RISK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL INTO NERN MN WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST. 

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE
MODE...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE TORNADO AND HIGH-END HAIL RISK.  GIVEN
THAT CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO
BREAK THE CAP...COVERAGE COULD INCREASE QUICKLY ONCE INITIATION
OCCURS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY REDUCE THE TIME WINDOW FOR TRULY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...WITH STORM MERGERS AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
SMALL CLUSTERS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS...THE THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21-22Z.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 06/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   47009657 49089505 48939415 48609277 48219033 47958996
            47529106 46769214 45919285 45139378 44579464 44379510
            44299559 44359601 45389641 46719678 47009657 

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