MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL OK...WRN N TX...ERN TX
   PANHANDLE...S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182014Z - 182215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

   DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY INITIATED NORTH OF OKC
   ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
   ICT. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
   BOUNDARY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 90S F WITH DEWPOINTS
   INTO THE 70S F. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT MCV WILL HELP
   TO FOSTER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE
   LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SWRN OK INTO S-CNTRL
   KS...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN N TX AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. 

   LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE
   REGION...THOUGH NLY MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES SOME WITH WWD EXTENT ON
   THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT PEAK INTENSITY...STORMS THAT
   FORM NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
   APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR WEST STORMS WILL
   INITIATE...BUT SOMEWHAT STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH ANY CONVECTION
   ACROSS WRN OK INTO WRN N TX. AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE AND
   COVERAGE OF THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..DEAN/GUYER.. 06/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33649976 35590019 35209874 38479836 38249657 34979697
               34209730 33629769 33249841 33259903 33649976