ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 181743 
SPC MCD 181743 
FLZ000-181945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 181743Z - 181945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 1730Z...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NRN
FL PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED DUE TO
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THOUGH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO
NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING FROM A COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND
EXPANDING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION MAY ALSO LOCALLY INCREASE THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM ANY UPSCALE GROWTH
THAT RESULTS FROM STORM MERGERS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 06/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   26698074 27008166 27268188 27848227 28638263 29158272
            29418256 29628231 29808188 29858139 28948076 28498061
            27918049 27188020 26698074 

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