ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 181631 
SPC MCD 181631 
LAZ000-TXZ000-181800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SWRN LA / E TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 181631Z - 181800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE
NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SEMI-ORGANIZED LOOSE CLUSTER OF
STORMS WITH AN ELONGATED COLD POOL/GUST FRONT ORIENTED FROM 40 MI E
OF SHV EXTENDING SEWD TO 20 MI W OF HUM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
ATCHAFALAYA.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AHEAD OF THE TSTM BAND HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS.  THE 12Z LCH
RAOB SHOWED A PRONOUNCED COLD POCKET AT H5 /-11.5 DEG C/ AND A VERY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TSTM COMPLEX AS
SAMPLED BY THE 12Z SHV-LCH RAOBS WHEN MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS /2000-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/.

ALTHOUGH THE WINDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WEAK...H5-H2
FLOW OF 20-30 KT FROM THE NNE ATOP WEAK WLY/S AT THE SURFACE WILL
PROMOTE A SWWD PROPAGATION OF THE TSTM BAND INTO THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS BUT
ISOLD DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE OWING TO 50-60 MPH WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK.

..SMITH/GUYER.. 06/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29809432 30939548 31969499 32379395 32159318 29609121
            29809432 

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