ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180023 
SPC MCD 180023 
IAZ000-180230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 180023Z - 180230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR MAINLY A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
OVER NCNTRL IA THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS OVER SRN MN CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SWD
ALONG A PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE
LINE TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME WITH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
SURGING AHEAD OF THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES...SUGGESTING INCREASINGLY
TILTED UPDRAFTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NCNTRL IA ARE IN THE LOW 80S
WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY CROSSES
INTO NCNTRL IA BEFORE FURTHER WEAKENING OCCURS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...

LAT...LON   43369478 43479411 43389317 42949320 42899475 43369478 

NNNN