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Mesoscale Discussion 959 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST MN...NORTHEAST ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...
VALID 171232Z - 171300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN INTENSE STORM CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
DISCUSSION...12Z ABERDEEN RAOB SAMPLED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MUCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG AMID RATHER STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8.5 DEG C/KM. WHILE THE ONGOING CLUSTER WILL PASS THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHORTLY...THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CLUSTER SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A SLOWLY DIMINISHING RISK THROUGH LATE
MORNING. GREATEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINING SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS
PRESENT FROM POLK TO BELTRAMI COUNTIES IN MN.
..GRAMS.. 06/17/2016
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 47159540 47159550 47159554 47159555 47249795 48209829
48369831 48549831 49009723 49389515 49369495 49369494
49319481 48709443 48029441 47599441 47509441 47439441
47409441 47159516 47159531 47159540 47159540
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